Who will be the next president of Uzbekistan?

This is the question, which worries many in Uzbek society today. Judging by a series of articles published recently on the internet, it seems a number of international news agencies are also very keen to find the answer.
In Uzbekistan itself people do not dare speak openly about the upcoming elections despite it's just 6 month left to them and still there are no officially registered candidates. Nevertheless, frequenters of choykhonas (teahouses) and gap (traditional gathering of friends and colleagues for socializing) organizers are irritatingly debating and creating various theories and rumours with a cup of green tea or a vodka in hand. Nathan and Joshua of Registan.net have also attempted to answer this question.
I would like to mention a few coherent versions:
The first, and most probable one is that Islam Karimov will put his candidacy again in the elections of December 2007, despite the assurances of an Uzbek MP and Parliament Committee Chairman in 2002 that Karimov will NOT be eligible for the elections of 2007. Thus, in total his years spent in power will make 17 years as the President of independent Uzbekistan - plus four years as the head of Uzbek Communist party - plus next seven years. Arithmetics makes it 28 years!!! But back to the version. As to why the election campaign has not started yet, Uzbeks answer with the EU Strategy planned and the image of the country. But if the West can swallow the fact that Kazakh President N.Nazarbaev intends to remain in power after 2012, then why to expect other Central asian countries to follow other way?
Second version is that the daugher of president Gulnara Karimova will become the next president, and her father Islam Karimov will remain as a Prime Minister. In this case Russia would gain more influence in Uzbekistan and would fully support Gulnara Karimova. However, there are a number anti-arguements to that. The election of G.Karimova could also lead to a great tension between a future president and heavy-weight businessmen and high-rank politicians of Uzbekistan. Infamous Zeromax company registered in Switzerland, which according to rumors belongs to Karimova has been taking away a number of profitable trades from those businessmen. Obviously, in this view, Islam Karimov sees the Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto case not only as an example, but also a lesson to learn from. A reason why Gulnara Karimova's candidacy has not been approved yet even by the current president.
Third version is that the current Prime Minister Shavkat Mirziyoev will become the next president. But he is a mere agrarian, and when it comes up to foreign affairs he is absolutely inexperienced. Mirziyoev can boost agriculture, mobilize farmers, but whether he can attend any summits, press-conferences and represent the country, is under a big question mark.
Other candidates could be the Secretary of National Security Service R. Inoyatov, Deputy Prime Ministers - R. Azimov and A.Aizihodjaev. Finally, the former and current Ministers of Foreign Affairs are also among possible candidates.
I would like to mention that out of all possibilities only the first version seems to be most real to me. I would also ask to consider that despite the run-up for presedential elections in Uzbekistan has not officially been declared, in fact it is already on its way. Islam Karimov is leading his campaign and visiting a number of Uzbek provinces in the recent weeks. His visits to Karakalpakstan, Khorezm, Fergana, Bukhara, Navoi, and that of today to Namangan and Andijan (Jamiyat is the first to report about it on the internet) are a direct implication and a proof of my point. It has been a long time ago that the Uzbekistani President visit regions to learn the situation or whatsoever. It has mostly been rather to remove this or that head of the province.
All these visits, the president starts with meetings of rural area population. It makes sense if to consider the fact that over 60 per cent of the Uzbek population lives in rural communities.

So, if I was to make a bet, I would bet on Islam Karimov in the next presedential elections. And this would be a 99% certain victory.

PS: Today (21.06.07) the President of Uzbekistan Islam Karimov visited Eastern regions of Namangan and Andijan in the Fergana valley, reported Akhborot news agency.
In Talakurgan district of Namangan region the President Islam Karimov met with the farmers. Karimov pointed out during the meeting that the village infrastructure should be paid a special attention to, and the life in villages should be as comfortable as that of the urban areas. President also touched upon the issues of the perfection of mechanisms of providing seed grains, pest control, fuel and credits for the leasing of required technology. The head of the republic also shared his recommendations on the newly built square Tinchlik (Peace), where a concrete surfacing had to be decreased and more trees should be planted. Concerning the monument to be built the president noted that opinions and proposals of the local population had to be taken into consideration. After visiting the premises of the newly built private recreational centre Saidano, the head of the state left for Andizhan, where he started his visit meeting the farmers of the Altynkul district.
Using the opportunity Islam Karimov expressed his deep respect to the 2.5 million strong population of Andijan, and discussed a wide range of issues related to agriculture, services in the rural area, as well as raising of living standards in villages, reported Akhborot.