Uzbek Minister: "Promote tolerance"

Uzbek Foreign Minister Vladimir Norov addressed the UN General Assembly yesterday. His speech touched upon the regional water usage issue, Afghanistan, and interfaith tolerance. His address was mainly similar to the speech made in August by Uzbek President Islam Karimov during the Bishkek Summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.

Water's of Amu Darya and Syr Darya are crucial for whole Central Asia and their mangement has to be wise. National and international companies should strongly abide to the UN Conventions and take into consideration neighbors while building hydro-power stations. Afghanistan should be demilitarized and drugs trafficking has to be combated.

However, it was the third point in the speech of the Minister that drew attention. The minister reminded of the contribution Uzbekistan made to the Islamic culture, and policies of tolerance in interfaith relations it is implementing. Minister continued saying: "We resolutely stand against that the counter-terrorism transforms into Islamophobia and acquires the form of open or hidden standoff with the Islamic world".
This statement might seem confusing for those who have read Craig Murray's book and follow the Forum18 reports.

Though, Uzbekistan made its name in counter-terrorism, so they should know it better what forms the policy might take.

You can read the whole speech (2 pages) here.

EU-Central Asia: Democracy through pipelines

Who will be the next president of Uzbekistan?

This is the question, which worries many in Uzbek society today. Judging by a series of articles published recently on the internet, it seems a number of international news agencies are also very keen to find the answer.
In Uzbekistan itself people do not dare speak openly about the upcoming elections despite it's just 6 month left to them and still there are no officially registered candidates. Nevertheless, frequenters of choykhonas (teahouses) and gap (traditional gathering of friends and colleagues for socializing) organizers are irritatingly debating and creating various theories and rumours with a cup of green tea or a vodka in hand. Nathan and Joshua of Registan.net have also attempted to answer this question.
I would like to mention a few coherent versions:
The first, and most probable one is that Islam Karimov will put his candidacy again in the elections of December 2007, despite the assurances of an Uzbek MP and Parliament Committee Chairman in 2002 that Karimov will NOT be eligible for the elections of 2007. Thus, in total his years spent in power will make 17 years as the President of independent Uzbekistan - plus four years as the head of Uzbek Communist party - plus next seven years. Arithmetics makes it 28 years!!! But back to the version. As to why the election campaign has not started yet, Uzbeks answer with the EU Strategy planned and the image of the country. But if the West can swallow the fact that Kazakh President N.Nazarbaev intends to remain in power after 2012, then why to expect other Central asian countries to follow other way?
Second version is that the daugher of president Gulnara Karimova will become the next president, and her father Islam Karimov will remain as a Prime Minister. In this case Russia would gain more influence in Uzbekistan and would fully support Gulnara Karimova. However, there are a number anti-arguements to that. The election of G.Karimova could also lead to a great tension between a future president and heavy-weight businessmen and high-rank politicians of Uzbekistan. Infamous Zeromax company registered in Switzerland, which according to rumors belongs to Karimova has been taking away a number of profitable trades from those businessmen. Obviously, in this view, Islam Karimov sees the Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto case not only as an example, but also a lesson to learn from. A reason why Gulnara Karimova's candidacy has not been approved yet even by the current president.
Third version is that the current Prime Minister Shavkat Mirziyoev will become the next president. But he is a mere agrarian, and when it comes up to foreign affairs he is absolutely inexperienced. Mirziyoev can boost agriculture, mobilize farmers, but whether he can attend any summits, press-conferences and represent the country, is under a big question mark.
Other candidates could be the Secretary of National Security Service R. Inoyatov, Deputy Prime Ministers - R. Azimov and A.Aizihodjaev. Finally, the former and current Ministers of Foreign Affairs are also among possible candidates.
I would like to mention that out of all possibilities only the first version seems to be most real to me. I would also ask to consider that despite the run-up for presedential elections in Uzbekistan has not officially been declared, in fact it is already on its way. Islam Karimov is leading his campaign and visiting a number of Uzbek provinces in the recent weeks. His visits to Karakalpakstan, Khorezm, Fergana, Bukhara, Navoi, and that of today to Namangan and Andijan (Jamiyat is the first to report about it on the internet) are a direct implication and a proof of my point. It has been a long time ago that the Uzbekistani President visit regions to learn the situation or whatsoever. It has mostly been rather to remove this or that head of the province.
All these visits, the president starts with meetings of rural area population. It makes sense if to consider the fact that over 60 per cent of the Uzbek population lives in rural communities.

So, if I was to make a bet, I would bet on Islam Karimov in the next presedential elections. And this would be a 99% certain victory.

PS: Today (21.06.07) the President of Uzbekistan Islam Karimov visited Eastern regions of Namangan and Andijan in the Fergana valley, reported Akhborot news agency.
In Talakurgan district of Namangan region the President Islam Karimov met with the farmers. Karimov pointed out during the meeting that the village infrastructure should be paid a special attention to, and the life in villages should be as comfortable as that of the urban areas. President also touched upon the issues of the perfection of mechanisms of providing seed grains, pest control, fuel and credits for the leasing of required technology. The head of the republic also shared his recommendations on the newly built square Tinchlik (Peace), where a concrete surfacing had to be decreased and more trees should be planted. Concerning the monument to be built the president noted that opinions and proposals of the local population had to be taken into consideration. After visiting the premises of the newly built private recreational centre Saidano, the head of the state left for Andizhan, where he started his visit meeting the farmers of the Altynkul district.
Using the opportunity Islam Karimov expressed his deep respect to the 2.5 million strong population of Andijan, and discussed a wide range of issues related to agriculture, services in the rural area, as well as raising of living standards in villages, reported Akhborot.

Raising a nation of guestworkers

Reading the articles on Fergana.ru on the population growth and Uzbek migrant numbers, I started gathering information on migration issues relevant to Uzbekistan.

Here below, I would like to focus specifically on the migration issues related to the latest trend in Uzbekistan. Fergana.ru reported that by the end of 2007, the Uzbek population number will reach 27 million people, and by 2020(in 13 years) it will amount to 40 million. In this sense, it is important to note how is the Uzbek government going to deal with unemployment issues in the republic.
Despite the fact that the national economy had, according to the Uzbek State Statistical Committee, a growth of 9,2 per cent in the first quarter of 2007, it will continue to remain incapable of dealing with such a huge inflow of working force into the local labour market, because no major economic reforms and measures have been taken to tackle the problem. What we can observe today in Uzbekistan, in the matters of population growth, is the result of the baby boom of the beginning of 1980s. The current figures imply that emigration trends in this country will steadily grow in the forthcoming years. Currently according to the official figures it consists 500-800 thousand emigrants a year.

These figures also show that the number of guestworkers in the countries of traditional immigration of Uzbek migrants will grow substantially. Undoubtedly, among the target countries affected by the Uzbek migrant workers' inflow will be, first of all due to the geographical proximity, target country image, and legal regulations, the Russian Federation and neighbouring Kazakhstan, both going through an economic boom and in a high demand of labour force. Partially, embassies of other CIS countries, South Korea, the UAE, the USA and that of European countries will soon start to experience problems in dealing with an increasing number of visa applicants in Uzbekistan. Nevertheless, the focus here is on Russia as a target country, for it has the largest percentage of Uzbek guestworkers.

Experts from Russian School of Economics have already made a prognosis that by the year 2025, the number of Uzbeks working in Russia will grow by 52 times and will reach 5,77 million people. A number of Russian newspapers highlighting this research called their article, quote en-quote, "Uzbeks will occupy Russia by 2025"(link in Russian). In this regard, Deputy Director of a department in the Ministry of Regional Development Maxim Petrov said that the total number of migrants in Russia to that period will reach 18% of the population, which will be critical to deal with, comparing the situation to that of in Germany, where the government cannot resolve the issue of Turkish migrants that constitutes 10 per cent of the population.

Another signifiant aspect of migrant workers from Uzbekistan, which has to be touched upon, is remittances sent from the Russian Federation. In places, where social policy of the Uzbek government has failed to attend to the needs of population, remittances sent by migrants, by large, have remained an important factor. According to RUSSLAVBANK money sent in remittances by Uzbek migrants made up to 18% of the GDP in Uzbekistan, larger in the amount than that of development aid rendered by both, the European Union and the US per annum.This percentage is expected to rise further on. It is yet another extremely vital point to make in regard of the foreign policies of Uzbekistan, and which has to be taken into consideration by other international actors keen on pushing out Russian influence in this Central Asian republic.

It is also to be noted that the Uzbek government has already noticed this tendency and is trying to improve the situation with raising qualified workers, but to a less degree reform the employment policies in the country itself. The youth movement of Uzbekistan, Kamolot, has already taken the initiative and has been widely broadcasting an advertisement on the national TV-channels, of a new program of seasonal training work for students of about 50 higher educational institutions called Bunyodkor-2007. A seasonal work is offered to students in the fields of agriculture and farming, building and construction, rendering services, health complexes, as well as in, so-called, 21st century construction in Uzbekistan, Toshkurgan-Boysun-Kumkurgon rail-road construction works. As is being promised, all the students taking part in these works will be provided with salary and required accomodation, recreational and working conditions. Just like in Soviet times.

In the year 2006, remittances sent by migrants made up to over than 1 billion US dollars in Uzbekistan. One of the other measures the government could have taken in this regard, at least, is simplifying the process of getting exit-visas, which is soaked in corruption of officials of the Interior Ministry.

In conclusion, I would like to add, in the view of the above mentioned facts, that all that hidden hatred and dislike towards Russia and its policies openly portrayed in the Uzbek politics during 1990s will have to be silently calmed upon, whether Uzbek officials like it or not. Because Russian-Uzbek cooperation nowadays has gone far beyond being merely strategical, it has also become a warrant of stabilization in the Uzbek society. The surrent government will agree to every Russian proposal, as long as the threat of social uprise is at bay. And in its turn, it will continue to raise guest-workes.